Indonesia's Forest Ministry Sets 17% GHG Reduction Target Through 2029 Strategic Plan

Executive Summary

PERMENHUT 18/2025 establishes the Ministry of Forestry's Strategic Plan for 2025-2029, setting a critical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of 17% from the forestry sector. The regulation directly addresses Indonesia's climate commitments by targeting deforestation reduction to 0.094 million hectares per year and implementing systematic carbon monitoring across forest ecosystems.

Regulatory Context

Regulation: PERMENHUT 18/2025
Full Title: Peraturan Menteri Kehutanan Nomor 18 Tahun 2025 tentang Rencana Strategis Kementerian Kehutanan Tahun 2025-2029
Type: Minister of Forestry Regulation
Year: 2025
Topic: Forestry Strategic Planning & Carbon Management
Series: Carbon & Climate
Status: Active

Key Climate Provisions Extracted

1. GHG Emissions Reduction Target (T1 Indicator)

Article Reference: Strategic Goal T1

"Reduksi emisi GRK dari sektor kehutanan" - Target reduction of GHG emissions from the forestry sector

Target: 15-17% cumulative emissions reduction by 2029, with 17% representing the final year target.

Baseline: Enhanced NDC (Nationally Determined Contributions) baseline emissions from forestry sector.

Measurement: Annual inventories using IPCC-compliant methodologies, verified through MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, Verification) systems.

2. Deforestation Rate Control (T1.SS1.1 Indicator)

Strategic Target: Reduce annual deforestation to 0.094 million hectares by 2029

Yearly Targets:
- 2025: 0.111 million hectares/year
- 2026: 0.106 million hectares/year
- 2027: 0.102 million hectares/year
- 2028: 0.098 million hectares/year
- 2029: 0.094 million hectares/year

Definition: Net deforestation (gross deforestation minus reforestation), calculated from forest cover change monitoring using remote sensing.

Coverage: All forest areas (production forests, protected forests, conservation forests) both inside and outside designated forest zones.

3. Carbon Sequestration Function Recognition

Ecosystem Service Valuation: The regulation explicitly recognizes carbon absorption ("penyerapan karbon") as a quantifiable forest ecosystem service with economic value.

Valuation Range: World Bank data cited indicates forest ecosystem services valued at USD 2,100-5,200 per hectare per year, with carbon sequestration representing a major component.

Hydrological and Ecological Functions: Carbon storage is integrated with watershed management and biodiversity conservation as co-benefits.

4. Net Zero Emission Pathway Alignment

Long-term Target: Maintain deforestation below 130,000 hectares/year as necessary condition for achieving net zero emissions by 2060.

2023 Achievement: Successfully limited deforestation to 121,100 hectares, below the threshold target.

Mitigation Actions: The regulation categorizes forest-based emissions reductions into six action groups:
1. Deforestation reduction
2. Forest rehabilitation
3. Sustainable forest management
4. Social forestry expansion
5. Forest fire control
6. Peatland fire prevention

5. GHG Monitoring and Reporting Framework (SP3.2 Indicator)

Target: 100% GHG emissions monitoring from forestry sector by 2029

Methodology:
- Activity Data (AD) × Emission Factor (EF) = GHG Emissions/Sequestration
- Carbon stock changes tracked across five pools: above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, litter, soil organic matter, dead wood

Verification: Quality Control/Quality Assurance (QC/QA) applying TACCC principles (Transparent, Accurate, Consistent, Complete, Comparable)

Reporting: Coordinated with Ministry of Environment (National Focal Point) for submission to UNFCCC

6. Climate Change Vulnerability Integration

Coastal Settlement Protection: Strategic plan identifies coastal areas vulnerable to climate change impacts, with forest protection as adaptation measure.

Disaster Risk Reduction: Forest ecosystem maintenance targets reduction in frequency of floods, landslides, and droughts in forest-adjacent areas.

Water Security: Forest conservation directly linked to watershed protection under climate stress scenarios.

Compliance Requirements

For Directorate Generals (Unit Kerja Eselon I)

Responsible Units:
- Ditjen PDASRH (Watershed and Environmental Forestry Management)
- Ditjen PHL (Sustainable Forest Management)
- Ditjen Planologi Kehutanan (Forestry Planning) - Coordination Lead
- Ditjen Perhutanan Sosial (Social Forestry)
- Ditjen KSDAE (Natural Resources and Ecosystem Conservation)
- Ditjen Penegakan Hukum (Law Enforcement)

Annual Obligations:
1. Report activity data contributing to GHG emissions/sequestration
2. Implement mitigation actions within their technical mandates
3. Provide data for national forestry GHG inventory
4. Achieve unit-specific deforestation reduction targets

For Forestry Technical Implementation Units (UPT)

Field-Level Actions:
- Prevent illegal logging and forest encroachment (reduces deforestation)
- Implement forest rehabilitation programs (increases carbon sinks)
- Monitor forest cover changes in jurisdictional areas
- Report disturbances that would impact carbon stocks

Carbon Monitoring: Conduct field measurements supporting national forest carbon accounting (tree inventories, biomass surveys).

For Forest Concession Holders

Sustainable Management Requirements:
- Operate within approved harvest levels that maintain carbon balance
- Implement Reduced Impact Logging (RIL) techniques
- Report forest condition changes in concession areas
- Participate in national forest monitoring systems

Compliance Linkage: Forest management plan approval contingent on demonstrating contribution to deforestation reduction targets.

Calculation Methodology

GHG Emissions Reduction Formula

Business as Usual (BaU): Baseline emissions from Enhanced NDC

Actual Emissions: Annual forest sector GHG inventory results

Emissions Reduction (ER):
ER = BaU Emissions - Actual Emissions

Percentage Reduction (%ER):
%ER = (ER / Total National BaU Emissions) × 100

17% Target: Forestry sector must contribute reductions equal to 17% of its BaU emissions by 2029.

Deforestation Calculation

Gross Deforestation: Total forest cover lost in one year (hectares)

Reforestation: New forest cover established in the same year (hectares)

Net Deforestation:
Net Deforestation = Gross Deforestation - Reforestation

Target Compliance: Annual net deforestation must not exceed the yearly thresholds specified above.

Practical Implications

For National Climate Policy

NDC Achievement: The 17% forestry sector reduction directly contributes to Indonesia's Enhanced NDC target, which aims for economy-wide emissions reduction with forestry as a major component.

Paris Agreement Reporting: Annual GHG inventories will be compiled and reported to UNFCCC per Article 13 obligations.

Conditional vs Unconditional: The 17% target appears aligned with Indonesia's unconditional mitigation commitment (achievable with domestic resources).

For Forest Conservation Finance

Carbon Credit Potential: Emissions reductions exceeding the BaU baseline could generate voluntary carbon credits or be sold through compliance markets (if Indonesia establishes Article 6 frameworks).

Economic Valuation: Official recognition of carbon sequestration value (USD 2,100-5,200/ha/year) provides basis for Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes.

Investment Attraction: Clear targets and monitoring frameworks may attract climate finance (Green Climate Fund, bilateral REDD+ agreements).

For Law Enforcement

Deforestation Drivers: Achieving the 0.094 Mha/year target requires addressing:
- Illegal logging
- Agricultural expansion into forest areas
- Mining in forest zones
- Infrastructure development causing forest clearing

Enforcement Priority: Ditjen Penegakan Hukum mandated to reduce forest crime, directly supporting deforestation reduction.

Moratorium Continuation: Reference to maintaining the Presidential Instruction on new permit moratorium as key control mechanism.

For Social Forestry Programs

Access Rights Expansion: Strategic plan mentions increasing community forest management access, enabling carbon-positive practices.

Agroforestry Intensification: By 2028, the plan targets intensified agroforestry systems that maintain tree cover while supporting rural livelihoods - balancing production and carbon storage.

Tenure Conflict Resolution: Addressing tenurial conflicts identified as necessary for reducing deforestation from encroachment.

Matrix Analysis

Verification and Accountability

Coordinating Body: Pusat Pengembangan Mitigasi dan Adaptasi Bencana Hidrometeorologi (Secretariat General) coordinates cross-directorate mitigation actions.

Data Coordinator: Direktorat Inventarisasi dan Pemantauan Sumber Daya Hutan (Ditjen Planologi Kehutanan) compiles forestry GHG calculations.

Verification Process:
1. Desk review of activity data and methodologies
2. Comparison of mitigation claims against actual inventory results
3. Third-party verification following TACCC principles
4. National consolidation by Ministry of Environment
5. International reporting to UNFCCC

Official Source

Official Text: PERMENHUT 18/2025
Citation: Peraturan Menteri Kehutanan Republik Indonesia Nomor 18 Tahun 2025 tentang Rencana Strategis Kementerian Kehutanan Tahun 2025-2029
Status: Active
Effective Date: 2025

This article is part of CRPG's Carbon & Climate series analyzing Indonesia's regulatory framework for climate change mitigation and carbon management.

Article 78 of 85 | REGPRIMA Protocol | Carbon & Climate Series

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